Central Pacific Infrared Satellite Picture

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Two tropical storms churning across the Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Hurricanes Could Rev Up any Time Now

NHC Forecasts & Warnings (NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)

Current Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis
Another Source For Surface Weather Analysis

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 21 August, 2006 : - - In the central Pacific, Tropical Storm Ioke has strengthened through the day and has sustained winds of 50 mph. It is located over 750 miles SSW of Honolulu, Hawaii, and is not expected to affect the islands as it moves WNW and then eventually more northwesterly. Ioke is forecast to become a minimal hurricane on Monday.

In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Hector is weakening; sustained winds are down to 60 mph. The circulation center is over 1500 miles WSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Hector will continue to weaken rapidly as is moves over colder water and into an area of higher wind shear aloft. It may be no more than a remnant low by Monday evening.

Elsewhere in the eastern Pacific, an area of disturbed weather about 450 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, is poorly organized, but could develop slowly over the next day or two.

 

Atlantic Hurricanes Could Rev Up any Time Now

There has been little action in the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season so far, but that may be about to change. Max Mayfield, director of the US National Hurricane Center in Miami, said there are signs of increased activity near the west coast of Africa, source of the troublesome "Cape Verde" hurricanes that grow powerful on their long trip across the Atlantic.

"The bell's going to start ringing here before long," he said in an interview last week. "There's absolutely nothing that I know of that is unfavorable (to hurricane development) in the eastern Atlantic."  Last year's wildly busy Atlantic hurricane season changed many people's expectations, but it is perfectly normal for the first two or three months of a season to be fairly quiet.

The storm season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30 and the worst part of it usually is between mid-August and late October, with the peak around Sept. 10. The average season produces about 10 tropical storms, of which six develop into hurricanes.

Last year saw nine storms develop by Aug. 7, on the way to a total of 28 in a record-shattering season that lasted until early January. Hurricane Katrina, the 11th and most destructive storm of the year, hit south Florida on Aug. 25 and New Orleans on Aug. 29, sparking massive flooding in the Louisiana city and killing more than 1,300 people.

Hurricane Andrew, which was the costliest storm in US history until Katrina, was the first Atlantic storm of 1992 and hit Miami on Aug. 24 that year. "We have a lot of years that don't really get started until the middle or end of August," Mayfield said.

So far this year, only three tropical storms have formed -- Alberto, Beryl and Chris. Strong wind shear -- the difference in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere -- has disrupted some of the tropical weather systems that eventually become cyclones.

Mayfield expressed puzzlement as to why the season hasn't been a little more active. "We're actually not sure why some of these are not developing," he said. 

Hurricane links:

NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)

Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA) 
West Pacific Typhoon Tracking (HZN)

Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (SURFORECASTS)
 
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Environment - Surfersvillage