Ernesto's projected path (click to enlarge)
Environment News
Ernesto Upgraded to Tropical Storm Again, John is Category 4 Hurricane, Ioke Headed for Wake Island
NHC Forecasts & Warnings (NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)
Current Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis
Another Source For Surface Weather Analysis
Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 31 August, 2006 : - - Ernesto regained Tropical Storm strength quickly over the very warm water of the Atlantic overnight and continues to plow northward along the Southeast coast toward South Carolina. As it goes, heavy rainfall will be the main concern from Ernesto as it spins toward the Carolinas and Virginia today.
This will be cause for huge flooding concerns as a stationary front produced 2 to 5 inch rainfalls across eastern North Carolina to Virgina already. Flash flood watches and even some warnings have been posted across the Carolinas up into the Mid-Atlantic today into tonight.
The center of Tropical Storm Ernesto is off the coast of Jacksonville this morning. It is forecast to make another landfall just north of Charleston, South Carolina on Thursday during the late afternoon hours. In addition to the flooding rains, Ernesto will kick up the waves along the coasts of South and North Carolina; rising between 15 to 25 feet. Some beach erosion is possible all the way to southeast Virgina by tonight.
Tropical storm warnings are posted Cocoa Beach, Florida northward to Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Looking ahead to the latter half of the week, heavy rain will produce flooding across parts of the Middle Atlantic and Northeast (including portions of North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, and Maryland) as remnants of Ernesto work northward and interact with a stationary boundary draped across the region.
This heavy rainfall will be in tandem with the busy travels of the Labor Day holiday. Be ready to deal with slow air travel and surface travel in the region. Keep it here at weather.com and The Weather Channel for updates and the forecast as we approach the holiday weekend.
Hurricane John
Mexico satellite (click to enlarge)
In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane John is a very dangerous Category 4 hurricane with top sustained winds of 125 mph. Hurricane John is spinning toward the west-northwest and is located 75 miles SW of Manzanillo, Mexico.
While the center of the storm is expected to track parallel to the Mexican Coast and remain offshore, it will hug the coast quite closely -- enough so in fact that hurricane-force winds will be felt in the warned areas even without an official landfall. Any slight deviation from the forecast and it could move onshore. Residents and tourists should keep a very close eye on the latest developments concerning Hurricane John. Hurricane warnings are posted from Lazaro Cardenas to San Blas and for Islas Marias. A Hurricane warning is also in effect for the Southern Baja Penisula from Las Pas southward on the East Coast and from Santa Fe Southward on the West Coast.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from San Blas to Mazatlan.
John will not only produce hurricane-force winds but will also provide torrential tropical downpours and may cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides along the Mexican coastline and the mountainous terrain. Rain amounts are forecast to range between 6 and 10 inches with local totals of up to 18 inches. Large and dangerous waves will also batter the coast. Further strengthening is possible.
Meanwhile, Kristy has become the newest tropical storm of the eastern Pacific Hurricane Season. It now has winds of 70 mph but fortunately is well away from any land masses. Kristy may reach hurricane status by early morning on Thursday.
Super Typhoon Ioke
Ioke and Wake Island (click to enlarge)
In the western Pacific, Super Typhoon Ioke (155 mph) is forecast to pass over Wake Island this morning (U.S. time). As of 2 am EDT Thursday Ioke was located about 30 miles east-southeast of Wake Island. About 200 people have been evacuated from the island. Unfortunately, if it holds its projected path, Ioke will likely submerge and devastate much of the island. Ioke has been a powerful system for the past 7 days and will make history for its intensity for such a long period of time if it can maintain its status until late Friday.
Hurricane links:
NHC Forecasts & Warnings(NOAA)
NHC Latest Satellite Imagary (NOAA)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center (NOAA)
West Pacific Typhoon Tracking (HZN)
Tropical Analysis and Forecasting (NOAA)
East Coast Wave Charts/Cams etc (SURFORECASTS)
Some Hurricane Facts -
Hurricane Records Broken
last year's Atlantic-Caribbean hurricane season rewrote the record books. And when meteorologists got a chance to thoroughly review the data, they discovered several storms were stronger than they initially thought. Here are some of the records set in 2005, according to post-season reviews by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
MOST TROPICAL STORMS: There were 28 tropical storms in 2005. The old record was 21 storms, set in 1933. It was the first time forecasters turned to the Greek alphabet for storm names after using up their annual list of 21 names.
MOST HURRICANES: Fifteen tropical storms strengthened into hurricanes, with top sustained winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph). The old record was 12, set in 1969.
MOST CATEGORY 5 HURRICANES: Four hurricanes -- Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma -- reached the top rank on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity, with sustained winds over 155 mph (249 kph). National Hurricane Center records show only two years, 1960 and 1961, with more than one Category 5 storm.
MOST POWERFUL STORM: The lower the barometric pressure in its center, the stronger the storm and Hurricane Wilma's briefly dropped to 882 millibars, the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic-Caribbean basin. The previous most intense storm was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which had a minimum pressure of 888 millibars at its peak.
COSTLIEST HURRICANE: Hurricane Katrina, which hit Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama in late August, caused more than US$80 billion of damage, making it the costliest hurricane on record and the costliest natural disaster ever to strike the United States. The previous most costly hurricane was Andrew, which caused US$26.5 billion in losses when it hit southeast Florida and Louisiana in 1992, or US$43.7 billion adjusted for inflation.
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