Tropical Cyclone BONDO Forecast Track (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
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Tropical Cyclone Bondo

Bondo Picking Up Speed, Losing Strength 

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 25 December, 2006 : - - As of 10h30 Monday, GMT, Tropical Cyclone Bondo was centered near 14.1 south and 47.3 east; picking up a bit of speed as its center heads southward towards northern Madagascar's coast. Winds were sustained at around 85 mph. Bondo is forecast to weaken and move a bit faster as it closes in onshore. The center of Bondo could make landfall by Wednesday, near the northwestern town of Mahajanga. The storm will bring heavy rain and gusty winds as it moves ashore, in many cases to areas which have already seen more than 5 inches of rain since Friday.

There is an area of low pressure northeast of Madagascar which has the potential to develop into a tropical system in the next 24-48 hours.

 

 
Bondo is heading directly for Ampasimaniry in the northern part of Mahajanga

 

Bondo Very Close to Northern Madagascar

Surfersvillage Global Surf News, 24 December, 2006 : - - Tropical Cyclone Bondo is centered, as of early Sunday morning, EST, just to the west of Antsiranana, Madagascar. Bondo is moving to the south-southwest at 5 mph as sustained winds are averaging between 80-110 mph. The storm has strengthened much more rapidly as expected and should continue to move south-southwesterly along the northwest coast of Madagascar over the next couple of days. With the storm being so close to the coast, Bondo will gradually weaken.

The projected course for Bondo brings the storm near Mahajanga, Madagascar by Tuesday morning, but any deviation in its course to the south-southeast will bring the storm inland over northwestern Madagascar. What is certain is that there will be severe coastal flooding and beach erosion for northwestern Madagascar with the high likelihood for heavy, torrential rain throughout all of northern Madagascar. This will lead to the increasing possibility for flooding, especially across the mountainous regions, through Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone BONDO Forecast/Advisory(JTWC)
Tropical Cyclone BONDO JMV 3.0 Data(JTWC)

Satellite Imagery

Storm Floater Enhanced Infrared(MTSAT; CIMSS)
Storm Floater Water Vapor(MTSAT; CIMSS)

Southwest Indian Ocean Infrared(Meteosat 5; Meteo France)
Southwest Indian Ocean Colorized Infrared(Meteosat 5; Meteo France)
Indian Ocean Infrared(Meteosat 5; NRL)
Indian Ocean Water Vapor(Meteosat 5; NRL)
Indian Ocean Visible(Meteosat 5; NRL)
Indian Ocean Infrared(Meteosat 5; CIMSS)
Indian Ocean NHC Color Enhancement(Meteosat 5; CIMSS)
Indian Ocean Water Vapor(Meteosat 5; CIMSS)

Satellite Animations

Meteosat 5 Infrared(Meteosat 5; CIMSS)
Meteosat 5 Infrared (NHC Color Enhancement)(Meteosat 5; CIMSS)
Meteosat 5 Water Vapor(Meteosat 5; CIMSS)

More information (WMO)

 

Click for entire Indian Ocean latest infrared

 

 - Atlantic Ocean Weather -


  
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2006 ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL SUMMARY:

The 2006 Atlantic Basin Tropical Season has been a far cry from the record setting season of 2005. As of November 8, 2006, there have been 9 named storms which 5 have become hurricanes and only 2 major hurricanes. None of the 2006 hurricanes made landfall in the United States giving a hurricane weary nation a rest from the horrific 2005 Atlantic Basin Season. Compare that to 2005 when there were a record 28 storms, of which 15 were hurricanes, exceeding the 1969 record of 12 hurricanes, and 7 were major hurricanes. Of the 7 major hurricanes, an unprecendented 4 reached category 5 status. The season was remarkable for its early beginning and number of storms as well as the intensity of the hurricanes, including the most intense hurricane on record for the Atlantic with Wilma reaching an amazing 882 mb pressure surpassing the old record set by Gilbert in 1988 with a 888 mb pressure.

Observed 2006 Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity through Nov 2, 2006:

Peak Sustained Winds (kts)/lowest SLP (mb)

TS Alberto June 11-14 60 kt/995 mb
TS Beryl July 19-21 50 kt/1001 mb
TS Chris Aug. 1-4 55 kt/1001 mb
TS Debby Aug. 23-26 45 kt/1000 mb
H-1 Ernesto Aug. 25-Sep. 1 65 kt/988 mb
H-1 Florence Sep. 5-12 80 kt/972 mb
IH-3 Gordon Sep. 8-20 105 kt/955 mb
IH-3 Helene Sep. 14-24 110 kt/954 mb
H-1 Isaac Sep. 28-Oct. 3 70 kt/989 mb

Totals 9 Named Storms, 5 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes
Monthly Summary For The 2006 Atlantic Basin Tropical Season:

June:
June 1 was the start of the official North Atlantic tropical cyclone season for 2006. On June 10, tropical storm Alberto developed as a loosely organized depression about 50 miles (80 km) south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba. Alberto strengthened to a tropical storm at 1500 UTC (1000 CDT) on June 11th. The storm tracked north, then northeast, eventually making landfall as a tropical storm along the Big Bend area of Florida, at Apalachee Bay at 1530 UTC (1130 EDT) on June 13. After tracking across the southeastern US, Alberto moved into the North Atlantic and dissipated from tropical storm strength on the 14th. At its height, Alberto's maximum sustained winds were 60 knots (70 mph), and it had a minimum central pressure of 995 millibars (29.38 inches of mercury).

July:
One tropical storm, Beryl, occurred in July. The storm formed approximately 220 miles to the southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina and was listed as Tropical Depression-02 at 1500 UTC (1100 EDT) on 18 July. Beryl intensified into a tropical storm at 0000 UTC (2000 EDT) the next day. The storm tracked north northeast toward Massachusetts, and crossed Nantucket Island before dissipating to the southwest of Nova Scotia, Canada at 1500 UTC (1100 EDT) on 21 July. Beryl's maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure were 50 knots (57 mph or 93 kph) and 1001 millibars (29.56 inches of mercury).

August:
Chris formed just west of the Leeward Islands on August 1st and became a tropical storm the same day. The storm tracked west-northwest to the north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic before weakening to a depression on August 4th, and dissipating along the northern coast of Cuba on the 5th. Maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressure for Chris were 55 knots (63 mph or 102 kph) and 1001 millibars (29.56 inches of mercury), respectively

Tropical storm Debby formed on 21 August, about 250 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands and tracked to the northwest. Debby became a tropical storm on the 23rd, and reached maximum sustained winds of 45 kts (52 mph or 83 kph) and a minimum central pressure of 1000 mb (29.53 inches of mercury). The storm was downgraded to a depression on 26 August and dissipated the next day, without ever making landfall.

The first Hurricane of the 2006 Atlantic season, Ernesto, formed on August 24th, about 155 miles southeast of Martinique in the Windward Islands and tracked to the west, becoming a tropical storm in the evening of the 25th. Ernesto briefly strengthened to a category 1 hurricane the morning of August 27th, off of the southern coast of Haiti before returning to tropical storm intensity. As a tropical storm, Ernesto made its first landfall near Guantanamo Bay, Cuba early on the 28th. Although strengthening slightly, Ernesto did not regain hurricane intensity, and made its second landfall in southwestern Dade County, Florida in the early morning of August 30th. After traversing Florida to near Cape Canaveral, Ernesto moved into the Atlantic and restrengthened, resuming a more northerly course and making its final landfall near Long Beach, North Carolina in the late evening of the 31st. Two deaths were reported in Haiti in flooding connected with Ernesto, while 6 storm-related fatalities occurred in the United States. At its height, Ernesto's maximum sustained winds were 65 kts (75 mph or 120 kph) and it's minimum central pressure was 987 mb (29.15 inches of mercury).

September:
Florence formed between Africa and the Lesser Antillies on September 3rd and began tracking to the Northwest. Florence became a Category 1 hurricane and brushed the western coast of Bermuda causing large swells, rip tides and undertows. Maximum winds for Florence were 80 kt and minimum central pressure was 972 millibars (28.70 inches of mercury).

Northeast of the Lesser Antilles, Gordon became organized on the 10th and began a northwesterly track. The storm attained Category 3 status with winds of 105 kt on the 13th, the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season. Minimum central pressure was 955 millibars (28.20 inches of mercury). Gordon eventually turned to the northeast and became extratropical.

A tropical wave formed off the African coast on the 11th and quickly orgranized. Helene went from a tropical depression to a major hurricane in just 5 days and remained in the central Atlantic before dissipating. While a major hurricane, Helene's maximum sustained winds were 110 kt and mimimum central pressure was 954 millibars (28.17 inches of mercury).

Isaac became a depression in the central Atlantic on the 27th and passed about 280 miles (450 km) east of Bermuda as a Category 1 hurricane with winds sustained at 75 kt and a mimimum central pressure of 985 millibars (29.09 inches of mercury). Isaac continued tracking to the north and began to weaken. It brushed the Newfoundland coast as a tropical storm before dissipating.

Averages:
The recent average (1995-2005) seasonal activity in the Atlantic Basin is 15.2 named storms, 8.5 hurricanes and 4.1 major hurricanes. These values represent an increase over the average of the preceding 50 years (1950-2000) of 7.5 named storms, 4.5 hurricanes and 2.1 major hurricanes. Making the 2006 Atlantic Basin Season as of November 3, 2006 with 9 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes: Below the 10 year average but slightly above the long term Atlantic Basin average.

Information and Data Courtesy:

National Hurricane Center - NOAA
National Climatic Data Center - NOAA
Colorado State University - Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray

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